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Paragon Commentary

Morning Grain Commentary

Oct 03, 2018
October 3, 2018 by Steve Freed

Grains are mixed to higher. SX is up 3 cents and near 8.69. CZ is up 1 cent and near 3.68. WZ is up 2 cents and near 5.22. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher.
US farmers should increase old crop corn cash sales near 3.69. They should also increase 2019 soybean cash sales near 9.34 SX19.

U.S. wheat futures edged higher on Wednesday, extending three-day gains to about 2.5 percent, as fears grow that Russia will act to curb exports. Russia's agriculture safety watchdog warned that 30 grain loading points in two export regions could be temporarily suspended for up to 90 days due to violations of phytosanitary rules. The dollar stood near a one-month high against its peers on Wednesday as political wrangling over Italy's budget plan rattled market sentiment and weighed on the euro. Oil prices dipped on Wednesday, weighed down by a report of rising U.S. crude inventories and an expected increase in production. However, prices remain near four-year highs ahead of U.S. sanctions against Iran's oil exports.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast is very wet with copious amounts of rain forecast for the southern Plains and into the northern two thirds of the Midwest over the next two weeks. The stationary weather front will bring wet weather west of a line extending from far southwest Kansas to Michigan. Weather models have as much as 4 to 8 inches over the next two weeks. The wet forecast has spot cash corn prices in Decatur, Illinois up over 7.0% today at $3.44 per bushel. The U.S. Southern Plains weather forecast is wet into mid-October with temperatures moderating to near normal readings.

Funds bought 7,000 soybeans, 2,000 soymeal, 4,000 soyoil, 10,000 corn and 8,000 wheat on Tuesday. Funds are estimated to be net short 47,000 soybeans, 86,000 soyoil, long 28,000 soymeal, short 94,000 corn and short 4,000 wheat.

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